4.1 Introduction
The new "City of Johannesburg" was established by the provincial MEC for Local Government on 27 September 2000 under Notice 6766 of 2000, as amended by Notice 8698 of 1 December 2000. The new area of jurisdiction incorporated the former Greater Johannesburg Metropolitan Council area (including the Northern, Eastern, Western and Southern Metropolitan Local Councils), Modderfontein (which was part of the former Lethabong Metropolitan Local Council) and parts of the Midrand area. The outer boundaries and the eleven regions of the City of Johannesburg are indicated in Figure 4.

The City of Johannesburg is located in the heart of Gauteng, South Africa's second most populous province and its commercial and industrial heartland. Although only 1.4% (17 010 kmē) of South Africa's total land area , Gauteng's approximately eight million people (18% of South Africa's population) contribute 37% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).

4.2 Demographic profile of Johannesburg
The City of Johannesburg is home to a population of 2 883 226 people in some 791 367 households. The population is projected to rise to 2 986 228 in mid 2005 and 3 103 182 in mid 2010.

The average rate of growth between 2000 and 2010 is projected to be 0.9% per annum. The African share of the population is projected to rise from 72% in 2000 to 74.7% in 2010, the Coloured share to remain constant at 6.5%, the Asian share to rise from 3.7% to 4%, and the White share to drop from 17.4% to 14.8%.

The HIV/AIDS epidemic is projected to have a significant impact on demographic trends in the city, as indicated in the low rate of growth above. Other reasons for the low population growth include low fertility in Johannesburg and modest in-migration.

Quality of living among the people of Johannesburg is also extremely variable and unequal. While the city enjoys a per capita GGP of some R 33 000 per annum, incomes are distributed highly unequally with some 70% of the population earning per capita incomes of less than R 25 000 per annum.

Today, half of the population is located in the southern traditionally black areas of the city, with future population growth projected to be strongest in the north-western part of the city. The following movements of the population are expected:

• Out-migration from the Diepkloof, Soweto and Orange Farms areas, to the extent that the population in these regions is projected to be almost constant from 2005 to 2010.
• In-migration to the Roodepoort region (including the north-western parts of Randburg), to the extent that this area is projected to have the most rapidly growing population between 2000 and 2010.
• In-migration to the Inner City and surroundings and the southern areas by Africans, accompanied by out-migration from this region by minority groups, especially Whites.
• In-migration to Diepsloot, Midrand, Sandton and Alexandra, except by Whites, among whom there will be out-migration.

4.3 Poverty in the City of Johannesburg
The legacy of apartheid is that Johannesburg is a deeply polarised city characterised by inequality. The affluent white population (less than 20% of the population), live mainly in the suburbs of the north and, have a standard of municipal infrastructure and services usually reserved for the wealthiest of developed country cities. The generally poor African population (about 70% of the population), live mainly in the large urban townships of the south and the peripheries of the north. The many years of neglect of the needs of these areas now present a grave crisis to the city.

The Human Development Index (HDI), which is a composite, relative index based on measures of life expectancy, literacy and income, differs markedly by population groups within the city, as reflected in the diagram below (Figure 2).

Figure 2. A Comparison of the relative poverty of different population groups within Johannesubrg

* Source: World Bank 1999 Development Data, WEFA 1999 Data Added to this, people in Johannesburg are getting poorer - the Poverty Gap in the City of Johannesburg has increased from R516m in 1996 to R791m in 1999.

4.4 The impact of HIV/Aids on Johannesburg
The impact of HIV/AIDS while impacting on life expectancy averages, will wreak its heaviest impact on black residents, with the most dramatic impact on African women.

Four risk groups have been selected ranging from the highest risk (public sector antenatal clinic users) to low risk. The groups are:

• Risk Group 1: Antenatal group - this group is intended as equivalent to the population likely to be associated with public sector primary care facility users.
• Risk Group 2: Non-medical scheme members who use private sector clinics.
• Risk Group 3: Low income medical scheme members.
• Risk Group 4: High income medical scheme members.

Risk group 1 constitute at least 168 921 HIV infected people in the City. Of this group 74 406 (44%) reside in Soweto. The age group 25 - 29 has an infection rate of 34%, which is extremely high. Higher age groups also experience infection rates of up to 26%. The overall infection rate of 26% is greater than the average for Gauteng, which stands at 23.9%.

The decline in mortality, prevalence and all other relevant indicators between 2000 and 2010 suggest the epidemic has peaked. The average annual number of HIV positive births is around 2 889 in 2000, however, at least 50% of these infections could be preventable. There is a significant difference between male and female prevalence, which is consistent through time. In 2000, female versus male infection levels were 157 861 and 128 667 respectively.

Figure 3: Projected life expectancy in Johannesburg: 1995-2010

The total number of AIDS orphans will increase from 76 623 in 2000 to a cumulative total of 139 419 in 2010. Government at all levels needs to cater for this growing social problem.

Figure 4. Administrative Regions of the City of Johannesburg

[to be added shortly]

4.5 The delivery of services to Johannesburg's poor households
Of the 791 000 households in Johannesburg today, some 33% are estimated to be housed in less than adequate accommodation, the majority of whom are resident in informal settlements (116 827 households) or in backyard shacks (108 000 households).

While the majority of households enjoy basic access to services in the city, a significant number are still served below the minimum levels of service. The percentage of households lacking basic access to each basic service type is:

• Water - 3.6%,
• Sanitation - 16%,
• Electricity - 15%, and
• Waste Removal - 12%.

The business of providing services is the largest portion of the City's budget. In 2000/1, from a total budget of R 8 122 billion, almost R 830 million was allocated to capital expenditure and half of the operating budget of R 7 293 million was allocated to electricity, water and sanitation service delivery.

4.6 Safety and security
Crime and violence are a significant issue in Johannesburg and are having a direct impact on the lives of residents of the city, either as victims or in curtailing people's freedom of movement or through perceptions about crime impacting on economic growth.

Following the national trend of a 15% increase in crime between 1994 and 1999, Johannesburg's crime rate has also increased. In many respects, crime in Johannesburg is of particular concern because it is the economic centre of the country.

More than 50% of the total vehicle thefts in South African occur in Johannesburg, with a significant percentage of organised crime, fraud and computer crime concentrated in the city. Patterns of violent crime and rape show that a high proportion of these crimes are also concentrated in Gauteng. During 1999, one in every four residents in Gauteng had experienced at least one crime.

This actual experience of crime has led to decreased levels of confidence among people in the ability of the police to assure their safety.

The crime-pattern analysis makes clear that economic crimes are concentrated in the northern and central parts of the city, whereas violent and sex crimes are most prevalent in those areas where there are large concentrations of high-density, poor households - generally the township areas of the city

The National Victim Survey found that 54% of assaults and 68% of sexual offences occur in and around the home of the victim, with 34% and 28% respectively involve a perpetrator who is known to the victim.

It is significant that it is young men who are the key offenders of violent crime, and it is other young people and women who are the primary victims of these crimes. Based on the available data, experts in the field agree that between 70% and 80% of all crime is committed by between 5% and 10% of the young male population.

Nearly 40% of the victims of violent crime are young men and women between the ages of 25 and 34 with the balance being mainly women in the home.

Research carried out as part of the iGoli 2010 Project revealed that, given the characteristics of crime in the city, the key strategic challenges are:

• The exposure of children and youth, particularly in poor communities, to crime, violence and abuse which strongly correlates to these youth later becoming involved in criminal activity
• Limited opportunities for, and belief in, economic activities as an alternative to crime among youth
• Depth of economic dependency of women in poor communities limiting the opportunities for women to move or act against abuse and rape from within households and communities
• Poor and ineffective role of police in crime prevention
• Poor performance of the criminal justice system in detection, prosecution and sentencing of crime and criminals, and
• High rate of former prisoners returning to crime after serving sentences.

The issues of combating crime, detection, prosecution and corrections are the mandate of national government with the various agencies undergoing transformation and undertaking major initiatives to improve the performance of the criminal justice system.

The glaring gap remains, however, in the arena of crime prevention, and this is the arena in which the city must act.

4.7 Economic profile of Johannesburg
Economically, the city generates a Gross Geographic Product of R 86 billion (Real 1995 Rands), 16% of South Africa's GDP (40% of the Province), providing jobs to 840 000 people (12% of national employment). Economic growth has averaged at 2% per annum over the last ten years, slightly ahead of the national average of 1.8%, with employment growing at just under 1% per annum over the same period. Yet unemployment has risen from 27% to 30% over the last three years.

Economic output and employment in the city is generated from the four key sectors of financial and business services, trade (retail and wholesale), manufacturing and community and social Services. This is reflected in the diagram below (Figure 5).

Overall investments increased on average by 2.6% per year from 1990 to 1999, although taking a dive in 1998/99 of - 3.8%. Transport and communication (+154%) as well as retail/wholesale (+35%) have experienced the highest investment growth rates over the last ten years. Electricity (-17%) and construction (-14%) have seen the sharpest decline in investments over the same time period. Investment ratios (new investment/capital stock) have risen for the main services sectors, whereas for the manufacturing sector the ratios went down.

This leave Johannesburg with a very high level of exposure to a few major sectors, three out of four being service sectors. This pattern in the economy of the city is the result of ongoing restructuring processes that have seen successive waves of development and decline in key sectors over the history of the city. The last decade has seen the strong emergence of the services sector, particularly financial and business services, the restructuring of manufacturing in response to the opening up of the economy, and the emergence of the new, knowledge-based economy where the real assets are in the form of skilled people and knowledge - both forms of capital that are highly mobile.

These trends are not about the local economy within the borders of the city alone. In the particular case of the manufacturing sector, Johannesburg is a part of a wide-spread manufacturing cluster running from east to west along the central Highveld. While Johannesburg may well be the place where more high-value added activity is located, the questions relating to manufacturing are questions not just for the city, but for the Province as a whole and for the East Rand particularly.

In order to reduce unemployment to 6% equaling 97 000 people (considered "full employment") by 2010, Johannesburg needs 3.5% p.a. job growth in the formal sector, or a total of around 475 000 new jobs in the next 10 years. Job growth at the current 1.1% p.a. will leave a deficit of around 440 000 jobs, i.e. which will still leave an unemployment rate of 27%.

Johannesburg's vision aims for prosperity for its residents. To reach the levels of prosperity that middle income countries like Argentina and the Czech Republic have attained, Johannesburg would have to experience a steep increase in its GGP/capita growth rate, which has been flat since 1996.

Figure 5. Sectoral breakdown of Johannesburg's economy

At the same time as (and partly because) the economy of the city has undergone restructuring in response to global pressures and has seen the emergence of the new smart, knowledge industries, informal business activity has grown dramatically as a source of income to residents in the city. Overall, between 1996 and 1999, employment in informal enterprises has grown from 86 310 jobs (9.6% of total employment) to 161 000 jobs, or 16% of jobs, with most of this growth generated in the trade, community services, construction, and manufacturing sectors. Trade (largely retail) remains by far the largest sector for informal employment, with incomes being generated still very much at subsistence levels. National data on the informal economy suggests that half of informal incomes are below R 222 per month.

4.8 Human development
While much of the work in the area of human development is currently the domain of national and provincial government, or of non-governmental organisations, the City of Johannesburg has a critical role to play in co-ordinating and stimulating action which could impact on the human development needs of the city.

At the centre of the city's human development strategy is the need to increase education and skills. The iGoli 2010 process revealed that the challenges start at the very earliest stages of childhood.

Currently in Johannesburg it is estimated that 10% of young children are in early childhood development programmes. This average however, varies across the city, with, not unexpectedly, poorer parts of the city having the lowest rates of participation.

The outputs from the primary and tertiary education system are also of concern to the city. It is projected that in 2003 the highest demand will be for qualifications in the knowledge, science and technology and service-based industries. However, the outputs from the secondary education system do not reflect this need. On the whole, the numbers of children graduating from school with a university entrance are low by middle-income country standards, and the actual enrolment and pass rates for mathematics and science are particularly disturbing in the light of the demand for skills in these areas.

The education departments at national and provincial levels are currently engaged in fundamental reform aimed at the key strategic issues within the sector and it would not be appropriate for the city to invest in areas which duplicate these efforts. However, the city has an overriding interest in education and skills as the economic growth agenda depends on appropriate levels of skill development. A human development agenda requires an empowered people who are able to seize the opportunities created by new economic growth. The city must therefore engage in the areas where it can play a key role in support of education reform.

The city should play a role in the following:

• Supporting the education and skills development sector
• Investing in a "Skills for Employment" intervention, and
• Development of Entrepreneurism.

4.9 Conclusion
Although Johannesburg is a wealthy city, this wealth is concentrated in a small (mainly White) elite. The remainder of the city's population lives in varying degrees of poverty. This situation has led to increasing polarisation between the rich and the poor in the city. Narrowing the gap between rich and poor, especially in terms of the delivery of basic services, is the challenge for those responsible for governing and managing the city.

This challenge has been addressed by firstly identifying and understanding critical areas of development such as: the profile of the population, poverty, the impact of HIV/Aids, the current service delivery needs of residents, safety and security issues, the economic profile of the city, and human development issues.